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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

JOHOR, where the Malays want their cake and eat it too: Can PR & DAP deliver?


JOHOR, where the Malays want their cake and eat it too: Can PR & DAP deliver?
It is obvious that Johor is not UMNO’s bastion anymore. The amount of confidence amongst the opposition leaders is ever increasing by the day and DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang has even declared Johor to be a front-line state that Pakatan Rakyat must focus on if the coalition wants to win the 13th general election.
UMNO, on the other hand, is trying resolve many other issues all over the country and may not be able to focus on turning back the tide. Some say it may be too late for UMNO to do anything in Johor anyway.
But how real is the apparent swing towards the opposition and will it even last until polling day? Let's look at what could go wrong for PR, apart from the electoral fraud they claim.
Malays still want their cake and eat it too
The two main things that matter for the Johoreans are real change in governance WHILE maintaining the racial status quo, especially amongst the Malays who are the majority. In other words, the Malays who form the largest portion of the state's electorate want their cake and eat it. They don't want corruption, scandals, inefficient government, unfair courts. But they want to maintain their racial advantages, even if not supremacy.
This is a fact which will remain so until the last ballot paper is put into the balloting box. So take heed, Kit Siang and DAP. Promising to turn Johor into another Penang is the last thing Johor Malays want. Thanks but NO THANKS! So if PKR and PAS comes off roundly trounced and only DAP wins because they have swiped all the Chinese seats, don't be surprised!
Yes, the chance was there, it was real but like UMNO was blamed in 2008 for causing the defeats of MCA, MIC and Gerakan, for PR its grand Putrajaya ambitions may be halted by the DAP and the coalition's own overconfidence it has swept the country at a time when it should be the most cautious.
It is also a shock when top PR leaders suddenly show the very traits and Machiavellian politics that are the raison d'etre for Malaysians and Malays to demand change. The battle for seats within the parties and amongst coalition members certainly won't help the PR quest to Putrajaya.
Getting rid of all that built-in Umno brainwashing
As for the Malay mindset which remains the key lock to be opened, is it possible to ever change Malaysia then? In a way it is like the proverbial chicken and egg.
The mindset of the Malays - with all its racial prejudices - can soften and open up with time but this can only happen if the UMNO-BN is wiped out for good - be it in GE13, 14 or 15 -  and the new government puts in place policies and programs to cleanse from Malay minds all the propaganda that has been built into them by former UMNO leaders especially Mahathir Mohamad and his goons at the BTN (National Civics Bureau).
And the longer UMNO-BN holds onto power, the more difficult it is to remove this self-destructive propaganda from the mindsets of the Malays.
Perhaps, this is why many who are impatient for change say the ends justify the means. That PR is undeniably the only option at the moment - accept it, warts and all. But not all are so 'cincai' or willing to let go so easily. Some are more idealistic and would rather wait for the right horse to come before they are sure.
What is the situation now?
Looking at the recent political maneuvers by the various PR component parties in trying to secure seats, the infighting has become similar to that in UMNO. DAP is making full use of the media, including the UMNO-BN media, to fight for seats against their coalition partners as if their votes in Johor have already been assured.
In Perak, to the surprise of everyone, PAS has suddenly announced a candidate for Cangkat Jering, a seat which was held by PKR.
Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim himself has been accused of selling out his own PKR members when horse-trading with his counterparts at the PR top leadership council.
In short, instead of concentrating on winning GE13, PR leaders have in their excitement shown a bit of their true colors and some of their true selves. Like it or not, they are aping UMNO-BN. They may not realize it and the UMNO-BN has yet to capitalize on it, but Malaysians have started to notice.
Sad to say, sometimes the image can never be rebuilt. Johoreans like the rest of Malaysians have had enough and are willing to live without UMNO-BN on the basis and conviction that there is really an alternative that is 'shinning white', so to speak. For this, they opened up their hearts to change.
Hopefully, Johor Malays will not take fright and retreat back into their shells now.
Not old wine in new bottle, please!
Let's also face the fact that even with UMNO-BN's corruption and mis-governance, Johoreans are basically better off than their counterparts in many other states such as Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Pahang, Perak, Negeri Sembilan and of course Sabah. Johor folk have not been left out of the national development loop or economic pie nor but they sure envy their neighbor - Singapore.
If only UMNO-BN had developed Johor slightly better than it is now, Johoreans could live without the opposition. It must also be recognized that their new-found willingness for change is due also to a sense of solidarity with the rest of their fellow Malaysians. For Johoreans, change is not 100% driven from self-need but more of a 'why not go for change if it's better and there's an opportunity?'.
After 55 years of UMNO_BN, Johoreans will not take kindly to the same old wine in a new bottle. At such a late stage, if the PR leaders show themselves to have feet of clay, for sure Johor Malays will think again they might be better off with the Devil they know.
What Johor Malays really think
As the majority in Johor, the Malays would naturally prefer Malay leaders rather than Chinese but they can still accommodate the MCA rather than DAP, which they do not really accept at all. For the Malays, it is difficult to dismiss the “Chinese Party” stigma attached to the DAP which has won only in Chinese majority areas in the state.
Johor Malays would have no qualms about voting MCA but would be reluctant to vote DAP, especially in the rural areas. However they would definitely be comfortable to vote any Malay leader from the PR.
In PR's questionable strategy of fielding Kit Siang and more DAP candidates, it is like flooding Johore with Chinese leaders even if the candidates are non-Chinese because of the party's overall stigma. It is the same rationale for MCA, where Johor Malays do not see it as a Chinese party but a part of the UMNO-led BN. Thus by fielding more DAP candidates, PR can only depend on Chinese voters but would not get much from the Malays.
To the Johor Malays, it seems a bit sinister that Kit Siang would want to come to Johor. Many are conscious that DAP is an offshoot of Lee Kuan Yew's PAP. Hence at the DAP's recent Gelang Patah convention, UMNO supporters went to town accusing Anwar of wishful to sell out Johor to Singapore. No doubt, this is reprehensible of UMNO but it also happens because there are no real grounds for Kit Siang to leave his existing Ipoh Timur seat in the North.
With 54% of the Gelang Patah voters Chinese and the Skudai state seat, which is part of the Gelang Patah parliamentary constituency already held by DAP's Johor chief Boo Cheng Hau, it is a waste of firepower. Kit Siang would do better to help DAP and PR in a weaker spot but it looks like Kit Siang is more concerned about winning seats for the DAP, rather than creating the 'tsunami from the South' effect that he has been hollering about. So these are the lapses in sincerity that savvy Malaysians and Johoreans have noticed in this episode.
It may be typical of UMNO-BN to launch a new round of overdone accusations against Anwar and PR, but perhaps PR invited the backlash on themselves. Kit Siang may win Gelang Patah but it would hurt PR elsewhere in the state. It should be noted that despite all its hype, the DAP is only contesting 6 of Johor's 26 parliamentary seats? Can it deliver Johor for PR?
May backfire
After speaking to Malay voters around Johor, many of whom voted UMNO in 2008, it is clear they feel it would be more prudent for PR to field Malay candidates in Malay majority areas and take it step by step to build up confidence amongst the Malays to accept Chinese candidates in the future.
Like it or not, the Malays must feel comfortable with the Chinese contestants, whether they come from PKR like Chua Jui Meng or Kit Siang from the DAP. At the moment, sad to say, the majority only feel comfortable with the MCA.
PR must aim for the long term to be established and not rush so quickly that Johor Malays would be taken aback by sudden moves that require them to relinquish what they have been taught from birth was their rightful due.
Thus, if PR tries to pull a fast one and do an 'UMNO' by over-glorifying its Johor campaign to hide a realty that is somewhat less optimistic - and hence the DAP's rush to grab as many seats as it can for itself - this sort of short-term vision could backfire really badly and cost them all Putrajaya.
Malaysia Chronicle

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