THE coming 13th general election will be interesting as nobody can say for sure which coalition will win Putrajaya.
However, one thing that we can all agree on is that BN can no longer win a two-thirds majority and whoever wins, the margin of victory will be narrow. A lot of writers have recently made many forecasts but (in my humble opinion), most of these articles are political spins to make their paymasters look good.
As a disclaimer, I have no agenda in providing the following assessment.
My questions are for the reader to come to a conclusion on whether PR can improve their standing since the last polls.
I have relied on the results of the last election and sparingly highlighted the results of the by-elections, cross-overs and the MPs who have become independents. In the last elections, BN won 140 seats and PR 82 seats in the Parliament.
BN won narrowly with 86 seats and PR 80 seats in West Malaysia.
However, in East Malaysia, PR only won two seats with one each in Sabah and Sarawak.
Since then, PAS has wrested the Kuala Trengganu seat from Umno in a by-election. Six MPs from PKR and one MP from PAS have resigned. One joined Kita and six became BN friendly independents. DAP has wrested an additional seat from SUPP in the Sibu by-election.
Two SAPP MPs have left BN to become independents.
An MP from Umno in Sabah has resigned and become a PRfriendly independent.
Before attempting to predict which coalition will win, you should answer the following questions:
1) West Malaysia (BN86:PR 80)
Is the overall anti-BN sentiment expressed in 2008 stronger or weaker in 2013? If the anti-BN sentiment is worse now among the Chinese, will MCA and Gerakan be able to retain their existing 17 seats (MCA-15, Gerakan-2)? Will the Indian voters return to BN when consensus says 80 per cent of them voted for PR in the last election?
Will PAS be able to wrench away some of the 66 Umno seats and improve on their existing 23 seats won in West Malaysia?
Will PR be able to retain the seats of their seven MPs (Tan Tee Beng-Nibong Tebal/Penang, Gobalakrishnan-Padang Serai/Kedah, Zahrain Hashim-Bayan Baru/Penang), Zulkilfi Noordin-Kulim/Kedah, Mohd Fadzil-Bagan Serai/Perak,Wee Choo Keong-Wangsa Maju/KL and Ibrahim Ali-Pasir Mas/Kelantan) who have resigned from PR and become BN friendly?
However, one thing that we can all agree on is that BN can no longer win a two-thirds majority and whoever wins, the margin of victory will be narrow. A lot of writers have recently made many forecasts but (in my humble opinion), most of these articles are political spins to make their paymasters look good.
As a disclaimer, I have no agenda in providing the following assessment.
My questions are for the reader to come to a conclusion on whether PR can improve their standing since the last polls.
I have relied on the results of the last election and sparingly highlighted the results of the by-elections, cross-overs and the MPs who have become independents. In the last elections, BN won 140 seats and PR 82 seats in the Parliament.
BN won narrowly with 86 seats and PR 80 seats in West Malaysia.
However, in East Malaysia, PR only won two seats with one each in Sabah and Sarawak.
Since then, PAS has wrested the Kuala Trengganu seat from Umno in a by-election. Six MPs from PKR and one MP from PAS have resigned. One joined Kita and six became BN friendly independents. DAP has wrested an additional seat from SUPP in the Sibu by-election.
Two SAPP MPs have left BN to become independents.
An MP from Umno in Sabah has resigned and become a PRfriendly independent.
Before attempting to predict which coalition will win, you should answer the following questions:
1) West Malaysia (BN86:PR 80)
Is the overall anti-BN sentiment expressed in 2008 stronger or weaker in 2013? If the anti-BN sentiment is worse now among the Chinese, will MCA and Gerakan be able to retain their existing 17 seats (MCA-15, Gerakan-2)? Will the Indian voters return to BN when consensus says 80 per cent of them voted for PR in the last election?
Will PAS be able to wrench away some of the 66 Umno seats and improve on their existing 23 seats won in West Malaysia?
Will PR be able to retain the seats of their seven MPs (Tan Tee Beng-Nibong Tebal/Penang, Gobalakrishnan-Padang Serai/Kedah, Zahrain Hashim-Bayan Baru/Penang), Zulkilfi Noordin-Kulim/Kedah, Mohd Fadzil-Bagan Serai/Perak,Wee Choo Keong-Wangsa Maju/KL and Ibrahim Ali-Pasir Mas/Kelantan) who have resigned from PR and become BN friendly?
2) Sarawak (BN 30:PR/DAP 1)
During the 2011 state elections (where there were no parliamentary elections), many were surprised when DAP won 12 state seats and PKR three state seats. If we use the results of the state elections to extrapolate on the potential result of parliamentary elections by looking at the parliamentary boundaries of the state seats, DAP would have won six parliamentary seats.
It is noteworthy that DAP was able to win the Sibu by-election in addition to the Kuching seat they won in 2008.
In a nutshell, the Chinese voted overwhelmingly for DAP during the 2011 state elections. Will DAP be able to hold on to their Chinese support and increase their indigenous support to add more seats? Will PKR and DAP be able to win seats in the parliamentary constituencies composed of “mixed” seats with Chinese and natives support especially the 15 seats now held by SUPP (5), SPDP (4) and PRS (6)? Most pundits predict a range of six to 10 seats for PR.
3) Sabah (BN 24:PR/DAP 1)
Since the last election in 2008, SAPP with two MPs and an Adun has left BN and become independents.
An Umno MP and a Upko senator have resigned from their parties and become PR friendly. Will PR be able to negotiate and cooperate with Jeffrey Kittingan’s Star and Yong Teck Lee’s SAPP to ensure a direct, one-to-one fight in all the state and parliamentary seats?
Will the on-going Lahad Datu Standoff have any effect on the Muslim voters in Sabah, especially among the Sulu voters? If you are able to answer these questions, then you have your own conclusion as to who will win the next general election.
During the 2011 state elections (where there were no parliamentary elections), many were surprised when DAP won 12 state seats and PKR three state seats. If we use the results of the state elections to extrapolate on the potential result of parliamentary elections by looking at the parliamentary boundaries of the state seats, DAP would have won six parliamentary seats.
It is noteworthy that DAP was able to win the Sibu by-election in addition to the Kuching seat they won in 2008.
In a nutshell, the Chinese voted overwhelmingly for DAP during the 2011 state elections. Will DAP be able to hold on to their Chinese support and increase their indigenous support to add more seats? Will PKR and DAP be able to win seats in the parliamentary constituencies composed of “mixed” seats with Chinese and natives support especially the 15 seats now held by SUPP (5), SPDP (4) and PRS (6)? Most pundits predict a range of six to 10 seats for PR.
3) Sabah (BN 24:PR/DAP 1)
Since the last election in 2008, SAPP with two MPs and an Adun has left BN and become independents.
An Umno MP and a Upko senator have resigned from their parties and become PR friendly. Will PR be able to negotiate and cooperate with Jeffrey Kittingan’s Star and Yong Teck Lee’s SAPP to ensure a direct, one-to-one fight in all the state and parliamentary seats?
Will the on-going Lahad Datu Standoff have any effect on the Muslim voters in Sabah, especially among the Sulu voters? If you are able to answer these questions, then you have your own conclusion as to who will win the next general election.
-malaymail
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